Wall Street bank Merrill Lynch, which has changed its chief executive and written off billions of dollars in losses from subprime lending, has broken from the pack and declared the US in recession for the first time in 16 years.
Its chief economist for North America, David Rosenberg, says last week's poor unemployment statistics (a two-year high) and weak Christmas spending have tipped the world's biggest economy over the brink.
"According to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality," he says, pointing to the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing.
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