Job market: No bottom until '09

The unemployment rate is forecast to fall in Thursday's jobs report. But signs still point to more job losses in the months ahead.

Economists are forecasting that the unemployment rate retreated slightly in June after May's big spike. But few believe that is a sign that the battered labor market is at or even near the bottom.

When the Labor Department releases its June employment report Thursday, economists expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.4% from 5.5% last month.

But job losses are also expected to continue. Economists are predicting that employers cut 60,000 positions from U.S. payrolls in June, up from the 49,000 job loss reported in May.
This would be the sixth consecutive month of job losses.

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Unemployment pain to continue - index

A new employment trends measure from the Conference Board signals that more months of job losses lie ahead.

Unemployment is likely to continue to rise as companies cut more jobs, according to a new index from a respected business research group released Monday.

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index (ETI) uses eight widely followed readings on employment and economic activity from both government and industry sources.

The Conference Board said the decline in the index's May reading suggests that the labor market hasn't yet hit bottom. The organization has computed the index readings back 35 years and found that it accurately predicts all turns in the labor market accurately during that period.

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The underemployment rate is rising

Don't be fooled by the relatively low 4.8% unemployment rate. Other measures, such as the number of people only working part-time, are a sign of recession.

An unemployment rate at 5% used to be called full employment. Today it's considered the sign of a recession.

When the Labor Department gives its March employment report this Friday, it's important to keep in mind that the relatively low unemployment rate isn't telling the whole story about the weakness of the U.S. labor market.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are forecasting a loss of 50,000 jobs from the nation's payrolls in the month. That would mark the third straight month of job declines.

The unemployment rate is expected to jump to 5.0% from 4.8% in February.

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Ohio's Job Losses in 2000s Worst Since Great Depression

Since the end of 2000, total non-farm employment in Ohio has declined by 3.7%, a loss of 209,400 jobs. Issuing a report looking at the breakdown of job losses across Ohio, the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition (AMTAC) has release a report prepared by Dr. Charles W. McMillion, President and Chief Economist of MBG Information Services.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing employment in Ohio dropped from 1,013,200 at the end of 2000 to 777,200 at the end of 2007. The loss of 236,000 jobs over that time period represents a 23.3% decline in employment. In 2006, the average annual pay for an Ohio private sector manufacturing worker was $50,023.

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