It's a recession: 75% of Americans say

Vast majority of Americans believe economy is still in a recession with no signs of recovery, though negative views are dwindling, according to a recent CNN poll.

Most Americans still think the economy is in a recession, but the number who feel that way has declined, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Monday.

In a telephone poll of over 1,000 adult Americans, 75% said they believe the nation is now in a recession. That figure fell from 79% in April. In March 74% believed the U.S was in a recession.
This decline is the first time the number - which had been steadily rising since October - has fallen. Then, the poll showed only 46% thought the economy was in a recession.

"From a consumers's perspective, the economy is bad, and the environment is going to be tough for a while," said Wachovia economist Mark Vitner. "That's pretty accurate."

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Home Prices Fall in 23 of 25 U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Home values fell in 23 of 25 U.S. metropolitan areas in April, according to Radar Logic Inc., as sales of a record number of foreclosed homes pushed prices down.

The Sacramento, California, region saw the biggest drop, with prices falling 31.7 percent from April 2007. Sacramento was followed by the Las Vegas area (29.9 percent), San Diego (28.1 percent), Phoenix (25.5 percent) and Los Angeles (23.4 percent), Radar Logic said.

``Prices are going down so fast they can't go down much longer,'' said Christopher Thornberg, president of Beacon Economics LLC in Los Angeles, who predicts a total decline of 30 percent nationally in the housing recession. ``We've never seen prices fall like this.''

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Buffet says US is already in recession

Warren Buffett sees US already in recession; says will last long

Asked by Germany's Der Spiegel weekly whether he thinks the U.S. could still avoid a recession, he said that as far as the average person is concerned, it's already here.

"I believe that we are already in a recession," Buffet was quoted by Spiegel as saying. "Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. ... But people are already feeling the effects of a recession."

"It will be deeper and longer than what many think," he added.

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US recession seen by 70 pct of money mgrs-poll

The near-term outlook of money managers around the world has turned decidedly grim, with seven in 10 expecting a U.S. recession this year, a survey showed on Monday.

However, more than a third of the institutional fund managers in Asia, Europe and North America who took part in the poll conducted in February are actively seeking opportunities in illiquid securities, suggesting some investors see a bottom in the market.

Most investors are still reeling from the credit crisis, which has touched just about every financial market in the world. About a third of the 234 fixed-income and equity investors in the survey conducted by research consultancy Greenwich Associates said they they have suffered losses due to mortgage-backed securities.

"Growing fears of systemic risk and doubts about the soundness of some counterparties show that investors are increasingly worried about the ability of some markets to function properly on a much broader level," Greenwich Associates consultant Frank Feenstra said in a note.

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US recession and what needs to be done

Wall Street got its hopes up on Mar 11. Elated by a Federal Reserve move to stop the credit crunch, the US stock market posted its biggest one-day gain in five years, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising more than 400 points.

Look out, though. Fed officials are the first to acknowledge that their initiative attacks only one problem, the liquidity squeeze at big banks. It does nothing about the central risk to the US economy: an unprecedented crash in home values that is sapping households' wealth and confidence while putting an enormous strain on the banking system.

How bad will this downturn get? No one can know because we've never experienced such a headlong slide in the housing market - and this comes at a time when its current value of $20 trillion accounts for the vast majority of most families' wealth.

Right now most economists expect the US to experience a mild, short recession in 2008. But there is at least a possibility of a steeper decline that the traditional recession remedies - interest-rate cuts here, deficit spending there - won't be able to handle.

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US recession more severe than last three

Martin Feldstein is a Professor of Economics at Harvard University and was one of the contenders for the FOMC or the Fed Chairmanship with Ben Bernanke. He is a widely respected economist and is important now because he believes that US is probably already under recession.

Feldstein said this is a very different recession from the last three recessions, which is the number of recessions we have had over the past quarter century plus, since 1980. “This recession was not created by the Federal Reserve as a way of damping inflation but grew out of the problems in the housing sector and credit markets. Those are not going to be easy to resolve.”

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Obama: 'Economy is in a recession'

Sen. Barack Obama, delivering a speech on the economy in New York today, took aim at not only the Bush administration but also Sen. John McCain of Arizona for their approaches to an economy which, as the senator put it, "is in a recession.''

The Tribune's John McCormick is reporting from the scene of the Cooper Union speech.

I want to thank Mayor Bloomberg for his extraordinary leadership. At a time when Washington is divided in old ideological battles, he shows us what can be achieved when we bring people together to seek pragmatic solutions. Not only has he been a remarkable leader for New York –he has established himself as a major voice in our national debate on issues like renewing our economy, educating our children, and seeking energy independence. Mr. Mayor, I share your determination to bring this country together to finally make progress for the American people.

In a city of landmarks, we meet at Cooper Union, just uptown from Federal Hall, where George Washington took the oath of office as the first President of the United States. With all the history that has passed through the narrow canyons of lower Manhattan, it is worth taking a moment to reflect on the role that the market has played in the development of the American story.

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Recession math smacks head-on into Reagan myth

Georgia Republicans have a choice to make, a choice between math and myth.

The math is pretty simple: We're heading into a major recession that a lot of economists predict could be deeper and longer than anything we've experienced in a generation or longer. Already, state revenues have begun to fall significantly, raising fear of budget shortfalls.

In California, the situation has already gotten so bad that 20,000 school employees may soon be laid off to balance the budget.

Under such circumstances, basic math says that passing significant tax cuts would compound the problem. It would turn potentially serious budget cutbacks into something truly traumatic.

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Looming US recession will have worse impact than 1997 Asian crisis

Expect the coming months to be tough, warned an economics professor. And the tough times may start next month.

"It's going to be a hard year for us. Everyone will be affected. And the hurt will be deepest among the low-income families," Ernesto Pernia, a professor of economics at the University of the Philippines and former economic chief at the Asian Development Bank told abs-cbnnews.com/Newsbreak in an interview.

The United States, a major destination of our export products and the host of overseas Filipinos whose dollars account for half of total remittances to the country, is facing a looming economic recession or growth slowdown.

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Recession worry mounts on weak GDP, job claims

The sluggish U.S. job market deteriorated further last week, adding to troubling signs for an economy that barely grew in the final quarter of 2007, according to government reports on Thursday.

Labor Department data showed first-time claims for jobless benefits increased by 19,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 373,000, a level considered to be near-recessionary by some and raising risks of a poor monthly payrolls report next week.

Separate data showed gross domestic product, which measures total goods and service output in the United States, rose in the fourth quarter at a glacial annual rate of 0.6 percent, slowing almost to a halt from the rapid 4.9 percent pace in the previous three months.

The growth rate was the same as the Commerce Department's first estimate delivered a month ago, defying expectations of an upward revision and heightening fears that the world's largest economy may slip into recession this year.

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US could suffer massive recessio

The US could see a major recession, according to analyst Nouriel Roubini, of the Stern School of Business of New York University.

There is now a consensus that the US will see a slowdown and probably a recession in the near future, but Roubini predicted this as far back as mid-2006, when his position was in the clear minority.

Worryingly, Roubini now forecasts that the chances of a disastrous sequence of events with dire economic and financial consequences are rising.

Between four and six trillion dollars would be slashed from household wealth if prices crash by 20-30% as he predicts.

This would worsen the already substantial writedowns from the subprime mortgage crisis and trigger defaulting on unsecured personal debt, the downgrading of monoline insurers and possibly the bankruptcy of a major financial institution.

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Get ready for a recession...in 2009

High inflation may keep the Fed from lowering interest rates much further...and that could lead the economy to weaken even more next year.

Guess what, kids: Inflation isn't going away. And that means the Federal Reserve's job is getting tougher.

Oil is hovering around $100 a barrel. And the January Consumer Price Index figures - released Wednesday morning - showed inflation bubbling up.

With that in mind, some see dimming hopes for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The high inflation figures will "further complicate the Fed's easing campaign," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency strategist with CMC Markets US, a New York-based brokerage firm, in a note Wednesday morning.

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Greenspan: Recession chances '50% or better'

Former Fed chairman, speaking at Houston conference, also promotes nuclear power and electric cars.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday there's at least a 50% chance the United States will slip into recession, and that the storm clouds over the economy won't clear until home prices bottom out.

Greenspan, speaking at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates' annual energy conference in Houston, said that what may derail the economy are tightening credit markets and a potential slowdown in consumer spending sparked by defaults in the real estate market.

"We're clearly on the edge, it's 50% or better" chances the economy will slip into recession, he said.

If it weren't for the fact that business were so well-supplied with capital - thanks to the low interest rates over the last several years - he said the economy would already be in recession.

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Survival strategies: Recession-proof your life

The economy and the markets may be in for a hard fall. Here's how you and your family can land safely.

Falling home values, rising unemployment, declining confidence among consumers and businesses and, lately, a swooning stock market. We may or may not be entering an official recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking economic activity), but either way 2008 has gotten off to a scarier start than most anyone predicted.

To lower your anxiety level and devise your own coping strategies - all without resorting to prescription medications - read this special report. You'll not only learn how the economy and markets might perform if we're in a real downturn (Breathe. Remember that knowledge is the key to overcoming fear.), you'll also get timely advice on what to do about your finances, investments, job and home. The economy and the markets will bring what they bring. Keep reading and learn how to take it all in stride.

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Consumer confidence sinks lower

RBC Cash Index shows consumer confidence hurt by deteriorating jobs market, recession worries.

People's confidence in the economy sank even lower amid heightened fears about shrinking job opportunities and the possibility the country is falling into recession.

According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence dropped to a mark of 48.5 in early February, from 56.3 last month. The new reading was the worst since the index began in 2002 and surpassed the previous low reached in January.

The continued erosion in confidence comes despite the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has gotten much more forceful in cutting interest rates to induce people to buy more and bolster the economy. The Fed slashed interest rates twice over the span of just eight days in January - its most aggressive rate reductions in two decades.

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Recession is here - economists

A weak report about the services sector has caused some experts to declare that the economy has already entered downturn.

A growing number of top economists believe that the U.S. economy has now toppled into recession.

Alarm bells were set off Tuesday by a grim report on service businesses, which make up the majority of the U.S. economy.

The Institute of Supply Management said that activity in the service sector declined for the first time in nearly five years. This report also indicated that employers are cutting staff.

The survey covers the retail, transportation and health care industries as well as hard hit areas such as finance, real estate and construction.

Some economists argued that the normally low-profile ISM services reading, coupled with the government's report Friday showing the first monthly net loss in jobs in more than four years, is proof that recession is now a reality.

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US recession could be good for Indian IT firms

India should look at the possible recession in the US as an opportunity as domestic IT companies are more cost effective, Infosys Chief Mentor N R Narayana Murthy said.

“The fact that there may be a slowdown in the US means people will become much more concerned over better value for money...we could look at it as an opportunity,” Murthy told reporters on the sidelines of a function here. The Indian IT industry fears that a possible slowdown in the US economy could lead their companies to cut IT spending.

As Indian IT companies are earning major revenue from the US, recession is being looked at as having a negative effect on the topline. Murthy said that instead of an adverse effect, it was more likely that India benefits if the US economy, the world’s biggest, witnesses a slowdown.

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Dollar's golden era is ending, warns Soros

The billionaire investor famous for "breaking" the Bank of England in the 1990s has warned that Britain is heading for a recession.

George Soros said that a recession in both the United States and Britain "will be very difficult to avoid". He was speaking on the fringes of the World Economic Forum summit in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world's top politicians and businessmen are meeting.

The warning is significant, since although many of the major investment banks now agree that the US is set to suffer a recession, most economists have predicted that Britain's fortunes will be far better.

His warning came less than 24 hours after the US Federal Reserve used an emergency three-quarter percentage point cut in interest rates to try to prevent the world's biggest economy slumping dramatically.

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Recession 2008: How bad it can get

Many economists are predicting a short, shallow recession. But there's also a significant risk of a more serious economic decline.

The sputtering U.S. economy has gotten everyone from the financial markets to the Federal Reserve to Congress in a panic.

But here's a disheartening message for those already worried about economic growth -- it could get much worse.

Most economists who believe a recession is already here or at least near are looking for a relatively short and mild downturn, perhaps lasting only two or three quarters.

But many of those same economists say they also can envision a worst-case scenario where spending by consumers and businesses falls off sharply, unemployment heads higher than normal during a typical recession and housing and credit market problems worsen.

"I can easily imagine [the economy] going into a free fall," said Dean Baker, the chief economist for the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "The danger is that housing prices continue to tumble and accelerate, people's ability to pull out equity will evaporate, and you'll see a serious downturn in consumption."

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U.S. Recession Spurs Slip In Global Stock Markets

News of a possible recession in the United States led to lower major global stock markets. From London to Tokyo, drops in indices were reported.


In Europe, London's FTSE slid by 3.6 percent to 5685.2, while Paris' Cac-40 suffered a 6.7 percent decline and Frankfurt's Dax fell 5.4 percent.


Asian markets also reflected a downturn. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index dipped by 3.9 percent, its lowest decline since October 2005, while India's Sensex tumbled by 7.4 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index showed a 5.5 percent slip to 23,818.86. This is the Special Administrative Region's second largest percentage decline since Sept. 11, 2001.


Similar downtrends were reported in South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Taiwan and the Philippines.


"People are certainly nervous about a potential recession in the U.S. spilling over to the rest of the world," David Cohen, director of the Asian Economic Forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore, told the BBC.


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