Monday, January 7, 2008

Feldstein says chance of US recession now 'probably over' 50 pct

NEW ORLEANS (Thomson Financial) - The chances of a recession in the US economy are likely above 50 pct after this morning's employment report, said Harvard economics professor Martin Feldstein.

He was already predicting a 50/50 chance before today's report, but now 'I'm probably over, I'm probably over,' he told Thomson Financial News on the sidelines of the American Economics Association meeting here.

Feldstein said he was 'not expecting' a 5 pct reading on the unemployment rate. 'It says that consumer confidence will be weaker, that household income will be lower, it says that consumer spending won't grow as fast, so I think it increases the risk of very slow growth or an actual downturn in 2008,' he said.

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