A Perfect Storm Stalks American Prosperity

The skies are darkening, and ominous new considerations are intruding on the politics of 2008. The softening economy, accumulating foreclosures for homeowners, more multibillion-dollar write-offs by major banks, the swooning dollar and stock market, oil prices approaching $100 a barrel - the list goes on, inviting a trendy cliché: the "perfect storm" stalking American prosperity. The Federal Reserve chair will never predict recession - it would be self-fulfilling if he did. But Ben Bernanke came close when he acknowledged to Congress that things are going to get worse before they get better.

Most Americans are ill prepared for a catastrophic reckoning. Everything else aside, the basic fact of our national condition is indebtedness. That means when jobs disappear and wages slump further, the struggle to keep up with the mortgage or rent will intensify for a broad swath of the population. The pain this time will not be confined to a few laid-off "losers."

Presidential candidates have not had much to say about these gloomy realities, but they soon will. A down economy adds another heavy blow to Republican prospects but also presents a challenge for Democrats. The incumbent party takes a serious hit if an election-year recession develops (ask Jimmy Carter, in 1980, or George H.W. Bush, in 1992). But that bad news might encourage Democrats to be even more cautious than they already are. Voters will want to know of a potential president, first, whether he or she grasps what is upon us and, second, what he or she intends to do about it if elected.