China's monthly trade surplus probably topped $30 billion for the first time, adding fuel to U.S. complaints the yuan is undervalued.
The gap widened 29 percent in October from a year earlier to $30.8 billion, according to the median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The government may release the figure as early as today.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, due in Beijing next month for talks, said yesterday China is ``out of step'' with the rest of the world's calls to let the yuan appreciate. A plunge in the dollar to a record low against the euro adds pressure on China to allow faster gains to staunch a flood of cash that's stoking stock and property bubbles.
``Faster exchange-rate appreciation would be the best way to manage the excess liquidity,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``As we move into the U.S. election season, China's trade surplus will become a more sensitive political issue.''
Exports likely rose 22.8 percent in October from a year earlier, the same pace as in September, the Bloomberg News survey showed. Imports probably increased 19.2 percent after a 16.1 percent gain in the previous month.
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