Slowing U.S. economy inflicts pain around the world

Think of the United States as an intrepid adventurer who has stumbled into quicksand. As Uncle Sam struggles to free himself, a good Samaritan — aka "The Rest of The World" — extends a branch from shore and begins pulling him to safety.

Six months into the most serious financial crisis in a decade, that's about where the global economy stands. For now, customers in foreign lands are steadying a U.S. economy laid low by a debilitating credit crunch, which originated with subprime mortgages but has spread a chill throughout the entire banking system. Net exports are about the only bright spot on the economic horizon, adding 0.9 percentage points to U.S. economic growth in the third quarter. That's the biggest boost since 1980.

But now, the question is: What happens next? Will the world complete its rescue of the United States, or will Uncle Sam drag the rest of the world down?

"If it's a really steep downturn, it's going to pull everyone into its vortex," warns Harvard
University economist Kenneth Rogoff.

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If the United States manages to avoid a recession in 2008, Rogoff and most mainstream economists are sanguine about global prospects. But with U.S. growth in the final quarter of this year expected to be somewhere between anemic and non-existent, oil prices hovering above $80 a barrel and resurgent inflation in developed and developing economies alike, there are plenty of reasons to fret. "This is becoming a global phenomenon," says Sung Won Sohn, chief executive of Hanmi Bank in Los Angeles. "I think probably the worst is yet to come."

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