Pain Street USA: '08 housing outlook

The forecast is for a longer, deeper home-price slump than previously expected, with double-digit declines in many markets.

The United States is deep in its worst housing slump since the Great Depression, and according to a new report, it's not going to get better any time soon.

In a new survey, Moody's Economy.com says many metro areas will record losses of 20 percent or more during the downturn, with the national median price for single-family homes dropping 13 percent through early 2009. Factoring in discount offers from sellers, the actual price decline would be well over 15 percent.

80 of the 381 metro areas covered by the report will record double-digit losses, according to the report. Most of the worst-hit markets are in once high-flying areas such as California and Florida.

The steep losses were bound to arrive sometime. Throughout the housing slump, which began in the summer of 2006, experts kept expecting prices to tumble, but it wasn't until recently that they dropped substantially, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.

"There has been a sea change in seller psychology since the subprime shock this summer," he said. "Sellers now realize they have to drop their prices to make a sale and prices are coming down very rapidly in some markets."

One such place is Punta Gorda, Fla. In Moody's outlook, prices there will undergo the steepest correction of any U.S. market. From their peak during the first three months of 2006, to their bottom, forecast for the second quarter of 2009, prices will decline 35.3 percent. That's in nominal dollars; adjusted for inflation, the loss will be even greater.

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